Out of desperation, people are burning their homes down just days before foreclosure. Or is it an act of vengeance? (If I can't have it, nobody can!) Either way, do they really think they can get away with it? I mean, come on... coincidence?
Is Arson a traceable indicator that can be linked to recession forecasting? Can we combine this with other indicators to create a VIX like volatility measure for real estate?
Anyway, this is obviously not a good sign. With all the other existing housing hoopla, I think it's pretty clear that we're entering a recession. Logically, it makes sense to me that the troubles in housing precede a recession and lead in the recovery. (See calculatedrisk.blogspot.com for the analysis.) One of the last things anyone will give up is their home. If you buy into housing as an indicator for the economy, it is critical that we watch real estate in order to gauge the health of the economy.
Has the worst already passed? Or is there more to come? Only time will tell, but I think the worst will come after the election and regime change when the economic stimulus and a$$ covering stops.
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